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Market Update: 04-09-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS PREVIEW WHAT TO WATCH

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

First quarter earnings season, which kicks off April 12–13, sets up to show solid growth, buoyed by tax reform. The S&P 500 Index has grown earnings at a double-digit clip in three out of the past four quarters, a trend that is poised to continue for the first quarter. The index could also extend its streak of 35-straight quarters of exceeding earnings expectations. In this week’s commentary, we preview what we expect may be a very strong earnings season and highlight some key dynamics we will be watching.

Market Update: 04-02-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

FIRST QUARTER MARKED BY RETURN OF VOLATILITY

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Market volatility resurfaced in the first quarter of 2018, following the stock market’s calm and steady rise in 2017. This week’s Weekly Market Commentary recaps first quarter stock market performance, discusses some of the themes that were in play, and summarizes our outlook for the rest of the year.

Market Update: 03-26-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

THE STOCK MARKET’S FINAL FOUR FACTORS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The NCAA Men’s Tournament Final Four is set. Kansas, Loyola, Michigan, and Villanova are headed to San Antonio, Texas to determine this year’s college basketball national champion. In that spirit, following our “Sweet 16” commentary last week, this week we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2018: economic growth, earnings, trade policy, and the midterm elections.

Market Update: 03-12-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Our favorite leading indicators are signaling that further economic growth and stock market gains lie ahead. With the bull market celebrating its ninth birthday on March 9, we looked at some of our preferred leading economic and bull market indicators. We included LPL Research’s proprietary “Over Index” and two of the Five Forecasters (the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index and stock market breadth), in an effort to help assess the likelihood that the bull market will reach its tenth birthday in a year. This week, we will look at the remaining three forecasters: the Treasury yield curve, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and stock valuations. Historically, these indicators—which are summarized in our Recession Watch Dashboard—have collectively signaled a transition to the latter stages of the economic cycle and an increased potential of an oncoming recession and bear market.

Market Update: 03-19-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

WILL THIS SIXTEEN BE SWEET?

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The “Sweet 16” is set. In the spirit of March Madness and an exciting NCAA college basketball tournament that has brought some historic upsets, epic comebacks, and exciting buzzer beaters, we have compiled our “Sweet 16” for the stock market. Specifically, we have identified 16 keys for stocks for the remainder of the year [Figure 1] and assessed their potential implications for the market. Collectively, we expect these drivers to push stocks higher over the balance of 2018, though we acknowledge that volatility could stay with us. We will take a deeper dive into some of these market drivers in our “Final Four” next week.

Market Update: 03-05-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

THE BULL IS 9, CAN IT MAKE 10?

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The bull market will celebrate its ninth birthday on March 9, 2018. During that nine-year period, the S&P 500 Index nearly increased fourfold in value including dividends, producing a total return of 385% (19.2% annualized) while rising almost 300% in price. The recent market volatility, driven by fears of tariffs, inflation, and monetary policy, has many wondering if this is the end of the road for the bull market. So how much might the current bull have left in the tank? Given that we are not seeing the warning signs that have historically signaled the ends of past bull markets, including excessive equity flows and activity in initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions, we would not be surprised if the current bull market celebrates its record tenth birthday next year. This week, we look at some of our favorite bull market indicators and the signals that accompany them.

Our Team

Susan Jerris

Susan
Jerris

LPL Registered Principal 
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CA Insurance License #0662706
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Anthony Roble

Anthony
Roble

LPL Registered Administrative Assistant
Email Tony
CA Insurance License #0K61923
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Diana Esperon

Diana
Esperon

Administrative Assistant
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