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Market Update: 10-15-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

PERSPECTIVE ON MARKET VOLATILITY

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

After several months of historic calm, stocks sold off sharply last week. Rising interest rates and trade war fears were cited as the primary causes of the sell-off that caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 1300 points on Wednesday and Thursday combined. Concerns about corporate profit margins peaking and a potentially overcrowded tech trade also likely played a role in upsetting a market that had been extraordinarily calm over the past six months. The S&P 500 Index did manage to pare losses, thanks to solid gains on Friday, but still ended the week down over 4%, for the worst week since March. Here we share some perspective on the latest bout of market volatility, which is not particularly unusual, and share our thoughts on where stocks may go from here.

Market Update: 10-08-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: FAVOR U.S.; STICK WITH EM

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

We continue to favor the United States and emerging markets (EM) over developed foreign markets for global equity allocations. We see the U.S. economy as the primary driver of our forecast for 3.8% global gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2018, supported by new fiscal policies, while Europe and Japan may lag.* The United States remains a global earnings standout as well. Despite underperformance this year, we continue to see upside potential in EM due to attractive valuations, recent economic growth, favorable demographics, and the potential for resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute later this year.

Market Update: 10-01-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

BEST QUARTER FOR STOCKS SINCE Q4 2013

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Investors endured a flurry of trade headlines and emerging market turmoil in the third quarter, but that didn’t slow down U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 Index rose 7.2% during what has historically been the most volatile quarter of the year (7.7% including dividends), its biggest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2013, its best performance in a third quarter since 2010, and the 11th gain in the past 12 quarters. It is also notable that the S&P 500 did not close up or down 1% on any day during the quarter, only the second time in history that feat has been accomplished during the usually volatile third quarter (1963 was the other time). Here we recap the third quarter and highlight some key factors for markets in the fourth quarter.

Market Update: 09-24-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

THE DOW JOINS THE PARTY

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The Dow joined the S&P 500 in reaching fresh new highs last week. The record came after a drought lasting nearly eight months. The blue chip index has lagged the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite this year amid escalating trade tensions, which have weighed on the larger multinational U.S. companies that make up most of the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow). This week, we’ll discuss the impact of the Dow’s new high and whether stocks have enough support from economic growth and corporate profits to build on recent gains.

Market Update: 09-18-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

MIDTERM MAYHEM?

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Will midterm elections drive mayhem in the markets? The upcoming midterm elections promise to be among the more interesting in recent decades. The Republicans can take comfort in elections generally being about “…the economy, stupid!” Unemployment is at multidecade lows and wages are trending higher. On the other side, Democrats can point to the administration’s lack of progress on trade, President Trump’s below-average approval ratings, and the number of House of Representatives seats historically lost in a president’s first midterm election (~29 based on the past 13 such elections over 100-plus years, according to Strategas Research Partners). While historical patterns, recent polling data, and betting sites suggest odds slightly favor that the House flips, what does that potentially mean for policy, and how might markets react? We take a look here..

Market Update: 09-10-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

IS EM WASHED OUT?

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Are emerging markets (EM) washed out? Last week the MSCI Emerging Markets Index officially sank 20% from its peak in late January. This prompted many bearish headlines, such as “Emerging Markets Slide into Bear Market amid Contagion Concern,” and “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like a Crisis.” At the same time, a recent survey from Bank of American/Merrill Lynch showed that global fund managers are underweight EM equities for the first time in more than a year. One thing is for sure: From a contrarian point of view, the level of pessimism we are seeing toward EM could potentially be a bullish sign.

Our Team

Susan Jerris

Susan
Jerris

LPL Registered Principal 
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CA Insurance License #0662706
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Anthony Roble

Anthony
Roble

LPL Registered Administrative Assistant
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CA Insurance License #0K61923
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Diana Esperon

Diana
Esperon

Administrative Assistant
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