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Market Update: 03-26-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

THE STOCK MARKET’S FINAL FOUR FACTORS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The NCAA Men’s Tournament Final Four is set. Kansas, Loyola, Michigan, and Villanova are headed to San Antonio, Texas to determine this year’s college basketball national champion. In that spirit, following our “Sweet 16” commentary last week, this week we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2018: economic growth, earnings, trade policy, and the midterm elections.

Market Update: 03-12-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Our favorite leading indicators are signaling that further economic growth and stock market gains lie ahead. With the bull market celebrating its ninth birthday on March 9, we looked at some of our preferred leading economic and bull market indicators. We included LPL Research’s proprietary “Over Index” and two of the Five Forecasters (the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index and stock market breadth), in an effort to help assess the likelihood that the bull market will reach its tenth birthday in a year. This week, we will look at the remaining three forecasters: the Treasury yield curve, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and stock valuations. Historically, these indicators—which are summarized in our Recession Watch Dashboard—have collectively signaled a transition to the latter stages of the economic cycle and an increased potential of an oncoming recession and bear market.

Market Update: 03-19-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

WILL THIS SIXTEEN BE SWEET?

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The “Sweet 16” is set. In the spirit of March Madness and an exciting NCAA college basketball tournament that has brought some historic upsets, epic comebacks, and exciting buzzer beaters, we have compiled our “Sweet 16” for the stock market. Specifically, we have identified 16 keys for stocks for the remainder of the year [Figure 1] and assessed their potential implications for the market. Collectively, we expect these drivers to push stocks higher over the balance of 2018, though we acknowledge that volatility could stay with us. We will take a deeper dive into some of these market drivers in our “Final Four” next week.

Market Update: 03-05-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

THE BULL IS 9, CAN IT MAKE 10?

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The bull market will celebrate its ninth birthday on March 9, 2018. During that nine-year period, the S&P 500 Index nearly increased fourfold in value including dividends, producing a total return of 385% (19.2% annualized) while rising almost 300% in price. The recent market volatility, driven by fears of tariffs, inflation, and monetary policy, has many wondering if this is the end of the road for the bull market. So how much might the current bull have left in the tank? Given that we are not seeing the warning signs that have historically signaled the ends of past bull markets, including excessive equity flows and activity in initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions, we would not be surprised if the current bull market celebrates its record tenth birthday next year. This week, we look at some of our favorite bull market indicators and the signals that accompany them.

Market Update: 02-26-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

RAISING 2018 EARNINGS FORECASTS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Fourth quarter earnings season has been outstanding. As good as it has been, perhaps most impressive is the strong guidance corporate America has provided. In response, we have raised our S&P 500 Index earnings forecast for 2018 and our S&P 500 year-end fair value target proportionately. Our revised year-end S&P 500 fair value range of 2950–3000, approximately 7–9% above Friday’s close, represents a 19.5 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio on $152.50 in earnings per share (EPS).

Market Update: 02-20-18

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

OUT OF THE WOODS?

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Are we out of the woods yet? After the fastest correction from a record high in the history of the S&P 500 Index, stocks staged an impressive comeback last week. The S&P 500 put together its best week since 2013, rallying more than 5% off the lows to bring its session win streak to six. This week we consider what this means moving forward, including what higher interest rates and rising inflation might mean for stocks.

Our Team

Susan Jerris

Susan
Jerris

LPL Registered Principal 
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Anthony Roble

Anthony
Roble

LPL Registered Administrative Assistant
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CA Insurance License #0K61923
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Diana Esperon

Diana
Esperon

Administrative Assistant
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