WHAT MIGHT TRUMP THE ELECTION YEAR PATTERN?
Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial
This week we look at what the upcoming presidential election may mean for markets in 2016.. Following last week’s somewhat surprising news that both Ted Cruz and John Kasich had withdrawn from the race, Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Given that Trump has no formal policy record or political experience of any kind, this election cycle is, needless to say, unusual. Markets do not like uncertainty, and Trump undoubtedly brings that to the table.
Although stocks may be more volatile between now and November as market participants size up Trump and assess his chances against presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, we believe the typical election year stock market pattern, our assessment of the more likely potential outcomes in November, and the macroeconomic backdrop all still suggest modest gains for stocks in 2016.