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Market Update: 07-08-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

TAKING STOCK AT THE HALFWAY MARK

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Even after such a strong first half of this year, we think stocks may have more left in the tank. The S&P 500 Index gained 17.4% during the first half of 2019 — an excellent performance — even though a decent chunk of those gains reversed the 2018 fourth quarter losses. Putting that six-month performance into perspective, it was the best start to a year for the stock market since 1997, and its tenth-best start since 1950. This week we recap the first half and analyze prior strong starts to see what we might expect in the second half of 2019.

Market Update: 07-01-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

STOCK FUNDAMENTALS STILL SUPPORTIVE

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

We expect stocks to move higher over the second half of the year. Stocks already have had quite a run in 2019, buoyed by a return to fundamentals, with the S&P 500 Index up 17.4% year to date through June 28 for an 18.5% total return. The decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause rate hikes was the catalyst for the reversal, as market participants no longer feared that the Fed might unnecessarily restrict growth. U.S. economic data also have generally supported a continued economic expansion, while businesses continue to find ways to effectively navigate the environment. Generally upbeat first-quarter corporate earnings results gave investors another fundamental reason to bid stocks higher.

Market Update: 06-17-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

STOCKS AND FED RATE CUTS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

A potential rate cut may give stocks a lift. Stocks have benefited recently from increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, pulling the S&P 500 Index back to within 2% of its record high set on April 30, as of June 14. On June 4 Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled a possible cut by saying “we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” and since then, as of Friday, June 14, 2019, the S&P 500 is up 5.4%. The central bank’s verbal pivot, partly an acknowledgement that they must be ready to offset trade tensions, has pushed the odds of a rate cut in July from roughly 60% to 86%, based on the fed fund futures market. So what might a cut mean for stocks?

Market Update: 06-10-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

BULL MARKET FOR POLICY UNCERTAINTY

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Last week stocks enjoyed their best week since November 2018 despite rampant policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty remains high, particularly around trade, but you wouldn’t know it from last week’s stock market rally, which jumped 4.4% on increasing hopes for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. That jump brought the S&P 500 Index to within 2.5% of its April 30 record high. However, that doesn’t mean stocks are in the clear as the trade conflict with China continues.

Market Update: 06-03-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

BOND MARKETS’ SIGNAL TO STOCKS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Should stock investors be concerned about the signals coming from the bond market? Trade tensions were the biggest reason stocks suffered their first down month of 2019 in May, but worrisome signals from the bond market contributed. This week we look at what the bond market signals mean for the stock market and examine the disconnect between the bond market and economic and stock market fundamentals.

Market Update: 05-28-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Our favorite leading indicators are signaling that futher economic growth and stock market gain may lie ahead. With the economic cycle celebrating a record tenth birthday this summer, the big question is how much longer can the expansion go? This week, we will look at our Five Forecasters for late-cycle warnings. Historically, these indicators—which are summarized in our Recession Watch Dashboard—have collectively signaled a transition to the later stages of the economic cycle and an increased potential of an oncoming recession and bear market. In this week’s commentary we will examine market breadth and stock valuations. In our Weekly Economic Commentary and today’s Macro Market Movers Blog we will examine the other three forecasters.

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Our Team

Susan Jerris

Susan
Jerris

LPL Registered Principal 
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Anthony Roble

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Roble

LPL Registered Administrative Assistant
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CA Insurance License #0K61923
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Diana Esperon

Diana
Esperon

Administrative Assistant
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