PROSPECTS FOR A SWOOSH-SHAPED RECOVERY
John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
The strongest 50-day rally in the S&P 500 Index in over 70 years has sent a signal that the economic recovery is gaining steam and may look more like a “V” than a “U,” a square root, checkmark, or swoosh. We assess the probabilities of these various scenarios for recovery and reiterate our 2020 economic growth forecasts.
AS GOES THE VIRUS, SO GOES THE ECONOMY
The US economy almost certainly entered a recession in March 2020 as a result of the lockdowns and business closures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. After gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 5% during first quarter 2020 on an annualized basis, consensus expectations for the...