Several policy-related risks loom in September and October that may lead to an increase in market volatility. The debt ceiling needs to be raised (likely by mid-October), the government needs to be funded to avoid a shutdown by the end of September, and the Democrats are trying to pass two major spending bills and will need to provide greater clarity on tax increases over the next several weeks. We believe the greatest risks come from the debt ceiling and taxes, but expect neither to have much near-term impact on the general trajectory of the bull market.

LOOMING DEADLINES FORCING THE ACTION

September and October aren’t important policy months simply because there’s a lot going on—looming deadlines are forcing the action. Keep in mind that Congress is notorious for not acting until the last possible moment and even pushing back deadlines whenever it can, as different members of Congress try to squeeze one more concession out of negotiations.