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Market Update: 03-25-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

BALANCED RISK REWARD

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Risk-reward trade-off in stocks has become less attractive following recent gains. Stocks have had quite a run this year, with the S&P 500 Index up 12% as of March 22, 2019, and 19% since the December 24 lows [Figure 1]. The index now sits just 5% below its record high set on September 20, 2018, and 7% from our year end 2019 fair value S&P 500 target of 3,000. Given this move in stocks, coupled with a slightly weaker economic and corporate profit outlook, we believe it is prudent to readjust domestic equity allocations back to market weight.

Market Update: 03-18-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

MOVIN ON UP (IN MARKET CAP)

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Large caps may be better positioned than small caps, given where we are in the business cycle. Small cap stocks have performed well so far in 2019, with the Russell 2000 Index, the most popular small cap benchmark, up 15.2% year to date compared with the 12.6% gain in the large cap S&P 500 Index. Small caps tend to do better when economic growth expectations improve and stocks broadly rally, which has been the case since late December 2018. However, we believe the environment is getting tougher for small caps, for reasons we discuss below.

Market Update: 03-11-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

MODEST PULLBACK OR SOMETHING BIGGER?

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

Following the strong 2019 rally, we ask if stocks are overdue for a pullback. The S&P 500 Index rallied 9.4% in 2019 and 17% since the December 24, 2018, low. The strength of the rally has been a surprise to many given widespread concerns about slower global growth, trade uncertainty, and the age of the bull market — which turned 10 last weekend, as we discussed here last week. Following that strong rally, a pullback is to be expected; but we don’t think it will get much worse than last week’s 2.1% drop, for reasons discussed below.

Market Update: 03-04-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

THE BULL TURNS 10

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The bull market will celebrate its tenth birthday on March 9, 2019. During that period, the S&P 500 Index has increased more than fourfold in value, producing a total return of 410% (17.7% annualized) while rising 314% in price. Concerns over the global economy, along with a potential policy mistake by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the trade dispute with China, all have many wondering just how much the longest bull market ever could have left in the tank. This week, we’ll show why this bull market is indeed alive and well and could make it to 11 next year.

Market Update: 02-25-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

FIVE KEY QUESTIONS

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

This week we reassess the stock market landscape following the latest rally. Specifically, we answer five of the most common questions we’ve received recently. We use multiple lenses to assess the stock market, including fundamentals, valuations, and technical analysis.

Market Update: 02-19-19

Jerris Wealth Management Group LPL Research Weekly Market Update

THE RALLY CONTINUES

John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial | Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial

The rally continues, as the S&P 500 Index gained for the seventh week out of the past eight, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 Index, and Nasdaq all closed higher for the eighth consecutive week. Sparking the rally this week were Washington striking a deal to avoid another government shutdown and hopes that President Trump might push back the March 1 deadline on higher tariffs on Chinese goods. With the S&P 500 off to its best year’s start since 1991, how much further can things go? This week we’re going to take a look at market sentiment, which can play an important part in determining how long the bull will run.

Our Team

Susan Jerris

Susan
Jerris

LPL Registered Principal 
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CA Insurance License #0662706
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Anthony Roble

Anthony
Roble

LPL Registered Administrative Assistant
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CA Insurance License #0K61923
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Diana Esperon

Diana
Esperon

Administrative Assistant
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